Polls that may Mislead
Can you spot the problems?





The February 2008 edition of the CIRCLIST website made reference to three online polls being conducted on the website http://www.opinion.com.au. The page was removed from CIRCLIST in August of the same year, although the polls were (as at 14.February.2010) still running. Let’s now revisit them to see what has happened in the meantime and try to explain the major turn-around in their findings.

If you want to view the original CIRCLIST page, drop this URL into The Wayback Machine :
http://www.circlist.com/preferences/surveyresults.html.



Poll number 3343 - Women’s Preferences

Question asked:  “Women, What do you prefer - circumcision or uncircumcision?”


Response
Options
February 2008 February 2010
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Circumcision Unknown 70% 1579 41%
Uncircumcision Unknown 30% 2313 59%


Are we to believe that, in a period of two years, Australian women have switched from being 70:30 in favour of circumcision to roughly 60:40 against? Or is something else going on here? Let’s check out the polling system.

Is CIRCLIST’s criticism itself watertight? - Well, not quite. It would have been preferable to have known the voter numbers from February 2008, so as to exclude the possibility of a very small sample size. However, judging by the serial number of the poll, it had been running for some considerable time before February 2008.

You can check out this poll yourself, here: http://www.opinion.com.au/3343_#



Poll number 6357 - Child circumcision

Question asked:  “Should circumcision be re-introduced for all boys?”


Response
Options
February 2008 February 2010
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Yes - it’s cleaner and
helps prevent AIDS
Unknown 92% 934 17%
No - it’s painful and
foreskins are fun
Unknown 8% 5217 83%


Are we to believe that, in a period of two years, Australians have switched from being 92:8 in favour of boyhood circumcision to roughly 84:16 against? Or is something else going on here? Once again, let’s check out the polling system.

Is CIRCLIST’s criticism itself watertight? - Again, not quite. It would have been preferable to have known the voter numbers from February 2008, so as to exclude the possibility of a very small sample size.

You can check out this poll yourself, here: http://www.opinion.com.au/6357_#



Poll number 2236 - Are you for or against male circumcision?

Question asked:  “Are you for or against male circumcision?”


Response
Options
February 2008 February 2010
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Yes - all boys should
be done at birth
Unknown Unknown 2745 22%
No - they should be
left natural
Unknown Unknown 4613 37%
The child should decide
when he is old enough
Unknown 2% 5100 41%


Are we to believe that, in a period of two years, Australians have moved from 2% supporting the child being the one to decide to 41% taking that view? What was a tiny minority vote has become the largest single response! Yet again, let’s check out the polling system.

Is CIRCLIST’s criticism itself watertight? - Well, not quite. It would have been preferable to have known all the data from February 2008. However, judging by the serial number of the poll, it had been running for some considerable time before February 2008, thus acquiring adequate sample size by that date.

You can check out this poll yourself, here: http://www.opinion.com.au/2236_#



So what’s going on?

The ease with which multiple voting can be achieved on the opinion.com.au website gives rise to a strong suspicion that the results have been deliberately skewed by 'intactivists'. Even if all the other identified defects in these polls were to be corrected, multiple voting would still render the results meaningless.

A somewhat more secure voting system exists within Yahoo Groups; there one can only vote more than once by having multiple Yahoo IDs. But even Yahoo isn’t perfect.

Moral:  Never trust the results of a survey without delving into the data collection methodology.




To return to the previous page that you were viewing, please use the BACK button of your browser. Alternatively, click on a link in the text above or choose another topic from the navigation panel below.




Copyright © 1992 - 2013,  All Rights Reserved CIRCLIST.


ICRA-labelled logo (1632 bytes). Restricted to Adults logo (1798 bytes). Unicode logo (1896 bytes). W3C code verification logo (1894 bytes).